Jan 11, 2005


TASR is coming apart much quicker than I would have ever thought. Whatever you may think about the product, the brand and the company I would stay away from that stock as a long-term investment for a good long time. It feels like KKD but it is happening in weeks rather than over the course of 6 months.

The 5-yr is flirting with the Nov. yield highs. It might pull back but it should claim that level and head towards 4% soon.

Morgan Stanley (under the heading "The three ladies don't sing from the same sheet") posted some thoughts on the state of UK and European interest rates compared to the US. I couldn't agree more.

Breadth showed some improvements while the indices were flat yesterday which might lead to divergence if the markets go lower.

I got stopped quickly on my metal entries last week. I still want to buy the stocks here but am making myself wait until they can at least get above the short-term downtrend line.

The news from retail continues to be disappointing. The reduction in consumer borrowing announced on Friday makes me think the world's consumer of last resort is finally trying to put its house in order. Long term it is a good thing but with out other consumers stepping up in another part of the world it might lead to a nasty adjustment.

What if S&P 1140 is to this year what S&P 1050 was to last year? The brief rally last year was not really comparable to '03 but the widespread use of technicals may lead to a similar phenomenon. The bulls can continue to see themselves as correct longer term, the bears as correct in the shorter term and the falling VIX would grind out trading overcapacity.

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