Jan 27, 2005

Man of Action

Today is doing just enough to keep the rally alive. Though we are getting some wild moves in individual stocks it still looks mostly sideways into the weekend. Sunday's election could definitely lead to a pick up in volatility and it seems pretty difficult to even know what will be considered good news. I guess the mix of legitimacy and/or violence will determine how it is viewed. The impact on foreign investor psychology will probably be larger than any impact domestically. I am not planning on trading anything except to take stops until Monday.

Next week we get the FOMC meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday. The meeting should be a non-event with a 1/4 point hike. The focus will be on the word "measured". If that word is removed I will assume it means they are done rather than that the pace of hikes may accelerate. If they change the statement to include worries about speculation in the corporate market that would be bad.

I have also decided to stay uninvolved in the currencies until I have more clarity. I get the sneaky feeling that China really is about to change its currency policy and I don't really want to sit through any swings like we had this week while the market sorts it out.

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