Jan 25, 2005

On My Mind

The long bond will retest its breakout at a 4.70 yield.

FNM is staying down but no one is talking about it.

The liquidity induced rally caught a lot of people by surprise in '03 but now with the Fed continuing to tighten everyone is convinced low bond yields can keep the market up. I find it particularily scary that CNBC kept reiterating just how "alright" the economy is while I watched the market get clocked on Friday. The market is certainly oversold and the New Year's money may finally arrive but after that it may be time to look for a shift in the pardigm.

Today's action might not feel that great but I would attribute that to the large gap up in the first hour of trading.

Right on que China announces it's growth is just fine.

KLAC nearing $45, INTC above $22.30

Shorting breakdowns has been tough going since 2002. The only safe short entries seem to be on the retest (double top).

The Yen looks like it is going to try for 105 before 100. I see the Fed hiking but I am just not sure that matters if lenders feel like they own enough US debt.

The blogosphere is the direct result of the plummeting costs of starting and maintaining a website. Do Yahoo!, eBay, Amazon, and Google really benefit from this over the long run?

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