Jan 27, 2005

Man of Action

The action is doing just enough to keep the 2 day old rally going. Some individual stocks are really getting whipped around but overall it still looks like sideways into the weekend seems likely. Whatever you do be very aware that Sunday's Iraqi election is likely a catalyst. I would not underestimate the idea that it may be more important to international investors than to the U.S. as it will not effect earnings so much as their view of the U.S. as a whole.

Also next week we have the FOMC meeting Tuesday and Wednesday. It should be like the last one with a 1/4 pt hike broadly expected. The world will again focus on the word "measured" and my feeling is that they keep it. If I'll interpret it as the hikes ending rather than accelerating. Even with the FOMC meeting I expect Monday to set the tone for the week.

I am putting off anymore currency trades until I get a clearer technical picture. I get the sneaky feeling that a Chinese policy change is right around the corner and would rather avoid the volatility as the market debates the issue.

No stock trades either until Monday unless stops get elected.

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