Nov 15, 2004


The equity markets are wandering sideways with some interesting undercurrents. The Semis are strong, particularly the semicaps, making up for last week's weakness. The OSX is resuming its slide with some attitude. There is a lot of chatter about the oil weakness and I even saw an article this AM claiming there was a supply glut. It quoted a trader saying OPEC needed to make supply cuts. The article seemed a bit odd given that oil is still at $46 / barrel.

The dollar is advancing a bit today but the DXY is still well below 85. Metal stocks are showing some weakness on the currency moves. Most notable to me is NEM which is failing right near its old high posted in January. I would expect it to breakout the next time.

All in all I still don't trust the averages here but the rotation evident in today's tape is a good sign for a longer term bullish outlook. The world seems divided into two views here. Those that are hoping for a pullback to buy and those that are just buying here. I am buying here but very little and keeping plenty of dry powder for a pullback.

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