Nov 1, 2004

The action so far

The most notable move is in crude oil which opened higher and has now reversed below 50. The upside was explained by some Nigerian news but their is no news with the reversal. To many buyers on the bounce I guess. The drillers are only now being pulled lower by the move.

The oil move seems mostly like a trading phenomenon but there was weakness in foreign bonds overnight and we are now seeing weakness in US treasuries too. Bonds apparently giving back some of the "flight to quality" gains of last week. Metals are weakening after a higher open and perhaps there is some fear of weakening demand for commodities. Does not really fit with higher bond yields but bonds have been trading a bit counterintuitively with goods prices.

Still expecting some weakness in the semis and technology. If we don't see stocks give back some of last weeks gains I would probably view a Wednesday morning pop as a shorting opportunity.

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