Mar 4, 2005

Metals on the Move

The underperformance and relatively nasty looking charts in the precious metals really stands out compared to the CRB and crazy strength in other commodities. On a pullback it will be interesting to see if they can hold on to their gains from the last couple weeks. If not I would look out in that sector. That weakness could be a sign that the world is overplaying a move by foreign CBs out of the dollar. Of course it could be heavy based on worries about IMF selling but I lean towards the former.

Dollar strength with rising commodity prices could be interpretted as an adjustment to high productivity gains in the service sector that have little impact on commodity supplies.

A few interesting charts in here are EK, NKE, and RTN.

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