Mar 16, 2005

GM Set to Wake up Risk Premiums

With the spread widening and stock collapse in GM this AM we are set for an interesting day. We also have the DXY breaching Monday's lows early while gold probes the Monday high.

I would guess that the GM news affects the morning and dollar weakness will grow as the day goes on. I would not be surprised if GM can manage a bounce off the 27 or 28 level. Does not really matter as much to the market. The impact in the bond market is what matters. If it spreads beyond GM it will be a contiuation of last weeks news, that might lead to longer-term weakness.

My concern for the dollar stems mostly from its disconnect to equity and UST weakness yesterday. It had a sharp correction once Tokyo opened and 82 is a big level for the DXY.

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