Feb 1, 2005

Watch them Bonds

I would say this mornings sell off in the long bond makes for a good short entry against the highs. Still not clear to me why bonds didn't reverse when the GDP mistake was made public. Whatever the case the 30-yr yield looks like a near-term double bottom.

The Fed is going to move 25 bps tomorrow but there are pretty good odds they will make some comment about investor excesses similar to what was said in the December minutes. At 4.60 bond yields are too low for investors to be comfortable with much risk of loss.

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