Feb 4, 2005

Stop That!

If I turn and look up from here, allowing myself to squint a bit, I can actually see the stop levels on my long bond trade. Clearly there is a disconnect between what I see and what the market sees. I also would say there is a bit of a gulf between the Fed's view that o/n rates are accomadative and the long bond's view that the gov't has run out of paper to print bonds on.

While I'm at it does anyone out there really believe that the unemployment rate is improving. I am going to go out on a limb and say that some day economists will look back at this period and realize lots of people could not admit they did not have jobs.

No more bond shorts until we make it back above 4.57 yield.

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