Feb 25, 2005

Closing Time

Today's morning anxiety eventually gave way to a pretty nice run. It should hold up for tomorrow but I would be a bit surprised if we held this morning's lows through next week. Breadth was strong today but the move lacked volume. Would have been a much better bottom if sellers had gotten stopped cold in the morning rather than everyone just waiting until noon to start playing. As it stands interest is still focused in commodity related stocks and housing. There is no lack of volume in TOL or X.

A couple of charts I follow look like they are in a good position to move up here. They are HAE and NEOL. I probably won't be adding any long-term positions though and may stick to day trading for a bit. The market seems to be trading as a unit reacting to bonds and oil and while that goes on the risk seems higher. I usually see things better when I am flatter and market is still figuring out which way the trend will be. Less so for bonds and commodities I think but the dollar rally tonight might mix that up a bit too.

I was surprised by how much the VIX fall off today. The market got a bit ahead of itself this week but I am not sure I would be bailing out of my insurance just yet. Makes me wonder a bit if people have too much premium at risk for the large percentage swings in volatility. I wonder if it is creating overtrading at a good long-term entry level.

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