Jun 7, 2005

VXO and SPX Divergence

The VXO already took out its Feb low last week and looks like it will manage the same trick again today. The SPX still needs to take out 1229 to keep pace so the market's forward view of risk is leading the actual price action.

Between this and my estimate of where sentiment is at I am going to buy some puts for the Fall. I am looking at the 1140 and 1100 strikes because I like to have the gamma around inflection points.

I probably won't short anything in cash unless TOL slips back below 85. Looking at other things too for that judgement but the breakout in homebuilders in the face of a lot of bearish commentary sums up my defensiveness best.

A divergence the other way occurred on May 13th just for some perspective.

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