Jun 9, 2005

Two Roads for the Market

This series of charts maps the technical landscape pretty well. Personally I am expecting a bounce from near here that revisits recent highs. That will be decision time for the markets in my view, rather than holding the uptrend from April now.

Whether we spike to new highs or not after that is really dependent on consumers maintaining their confidence and spending habits in light of growing debt loads and a 'soft' wage market. That has been the same story really since 2002. Eventually consumers will balk though and the longer it lasts the easier it is to envision that happening.

So if low long-term interest rates can create another binge it is liquidity enema part III (I - Spring 03, II - Aug 04) I guess. Otherwise we see debt payments crowding out consumption which leaves little support for asset prices. I lean towards the latter but doing my best to stay open to signs pointing the other way.

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