Jun 16, 2005

Morning thought

I think that higher open in Newmont (NEM) completes both a head and shoulders break, and an island reversal (updated 2PM - on further inspection the gap open did not clear the high of 39 from 4/27). It also looks a lot like the pattern in Phelps Dodge (PD).

Contrahour runs down the bull and bear views this AM. For bear support he also looks to transports but he sees the banks as central to the bull case. I would add to the bull side that with the yen joining in dollar weakness this AM, last week's bond weakness, and renewed commodity strength we are basically seeing a resumption of the trends from Spring '03.

Not quite convinced it will happen but yesterday's reversal to the upside certainly keeps it on the table.

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