May 2, 2005

Following Up on Gold Spreads

From CBS Marketwatch:
What has happened recently in gold shares is a microcosm of this. Gold is up 8% since the November 2004 peak in the HUI - yet the index is 30% lower.
Reading the company results, the reasons are obvious: explosions in oil and steel costs, and a surge in commodity currencies, indirectly a comment on the curious way gold has lagged overall price changes recently.
In other words, gold shares may have detached from their normal tracking of the gold price for legitimate, if unpleasant, reasons of their own.
Some feel this has gone too far. James Turk has a chart showing that the Gold/XAU ratio has only been lower - slightly - in the last couple of desperate bear markets.
Taking the view that extreme unhealthiness in the gold mining industry signifies a bottom, Turk thinks this could be encouraging.
Others might prefer to follow the Gartman Letter's example and shelter in the new Bullion ETFs, GLD (GLD: news, chart, profile) or IAV (IAV: news, chart, profile) .
So if gold prices stay strong while steel and oil prices fall, the spread should close again right?

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