Dec 3, 2004

March Memories

For the memory impaired this equities up bonds up split on a payroll report is exactly what we had in the March cycle as well.

On March 5 the 30-yr opened at a yield of 4.88 which was the high, closed at 4.70, opened March 8th at 4.73 and closed at 4.71. While this went on stocks opened at 1154 hit a high of 1163 and closed at 1156 only to open monday at 1156 and close at 1147. That report marked the end of the great bull market / jobless recovery of 2003.

I don't think we have the same market psychology here as equities only began moving up a month ago but I am surprised the comparison to such a significant day in recent history is not being made.

The u-report on March 5th showed an addition of only 21,000 jobs while the market was looking for 125,000 jobs to be added.

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