Dec 1, 2004

Banner Day

Taking stops on some oil and natural gas longs too.

This rally is impressive and feels well timed to avoid a pullback. I guess the market is willing to ignore higher interest rates and bad retail sales (auto sales too!) if we get stimulation via falling oil prices. While I like trading momentum patterns in individual stocks I am horrific at trading momentum in the market indices. Not sure if it is a short coming or a good defense mechanism but I find it very difficult to buy with higher prices as my only catalyst and a large crowd of people lined up the same way.

The metal equities seem pretty weak here compared to both the underlying metals and the dollar. I am guessing it is due to the arrival of the gold ETF (GLD) which essentially targets investors who don't trade metals or futures. Some people are pointing to the way metal equities led the metal declines earlier this year but I think this time will be different. We shall see.

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