Jul 15, 2005

Snow Knows when China will Revalue

From the FT:
The Bush administration has told key senators that it expects China to revalue its currency in August ahead of a planned visit to Washington by President Hu Jintao in September, according to people familiar with the matter.
Senators Charles Schumer and Lindsey Graham, co-sponsors of a bill that would impose a 27.5 per cent tariff on Chinese imports, agreed to delay a vote on their bill after receiving what they regarded as an assurance that China will move on its currency next month.
In a June meeting attended by Alan Greenspan, Federal Reserve chairman, John Snow, Treasury secretary, told the senators that he believed China would allow the value of the renminbi to increase against the dollar in August, the people familiar with the discussion said.
Though I agree with the timing I am surprised they would tell Snow and surprised it would leak. The yen is trading 112.15 so I guess the market is yawning it off. Not sure that will continue.

The dollar seems like it is in a prime spot for a reversal (DXY is sitting below some long-term resistance in the 90-92 range). Also this fits with the current interest rate environment as the Fed has primed traders for more rate hikes while the yield curve threatens to invert. Seems like a bit of a disconnect between the carry traders in currencies and the "conundrumless" bond market.

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