Apr 11, 2005

Back in the Saddle

Last week didn't do much but pass time. The sentiment in equities feels like a bottom but of course a look at a charts shows we are actually still at the top. Strange. I am sticking to the idea of shorting rallies just because of my views on the interest rate environment. Accelerating rate hikes don't usually launch bull markets.

We have now passed the weeks away with the DXY bumping up into its 200 DMA. This week should be good for a turnaround. Gold and silver are strong this morning which confirms at least a short-term return to the old trends. I am wondering a bit we will get strong equities and strong bonds too in a return to the old paradigm. I would be surprised to see bonds play along in that but maybe it could happen for a week or two.

Not too much has been going on in the news. I liked this article from William J. Polley that shows the similarity of the current Fed Funds cycle to the cycle we went through in the early 90's. He is planning a series of posts on the topic and I am looking forward to what he has to say.

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