The 10-yr yield managed to close back above its 200 day moving average today. It looks as if the move below November's yield low was a one-day shake out. The more muted buying in the 5-yr and complete lack of confirmation from stocks makes that case seem pretty strong.
The flipside is that it is a holiday week. I would guess we will retrace some of the move next week giving a short entry
Dec 29, 2004
Still Awake
Charts posted with Hello
Click on a chart to see a larger image!!
MMM looks like it will soon join the likes of GE and TYC in their uptrends. It is still below resistance but having cleared its 200 day moving average it appears to be carving out a near-term bottom.
SYNM also looks like it will soon be reaching for new highs. Has a nice tight risk-reward ratio while it holds above the recent gap.
Overall I expect the beginning of next week to be strong. Maybe some risk that we get a delayed negative reaction to the tsunami but seasonality and a well-rested uptrend should win the day. The semiconductors may be a good long in here as they are due for some rotating capital. I mentioned some head and shoulders patterns in AMAT and KLAC a couple weeks ago but the necklines have not been violated. The failure of that pattern might have left shorts squeezable.
Click on a chart to see a larger image!!
MMM looks like it will soon join the likes of GE and TYC in their uptrends. It is still below resistance but having cleared its 200 day moving average it appears to be carving out a near-term bottom.
SYNM also looks like it will soon be reaching for new highs. Has a nice tight risk-reward ratio while it holds above the recent gap.
Overall I expect the beginning of next week to be strong. Maybe some risk that we get a delayed negative reaction to the tsunami but seasonality and a well-rested uptrend should win the day. The semiconductors may be a good long in here as they are due for some rotating capital. I mentioned some head and shoulders patterns in AMAT and KLAC a couple weeks ago but the necklines have not been violated. The failure of that pattern might have left shorts squeezable.
Tags:
Technical analysis
Dec 28, 2004
Same Ukraine, Different Candidates
I ran into this old article on the Ukraine while looking to see how much debt the country has outstanding. But for the wrong candidate names I don't think I would have even noticed it was 5 years old.
The data I was looking for is available on the World Bank site.
The data I was looking for is available on the World Bank site.
Thoughts for the New Year
Some analysts are joining me in noticing the bullish pattern in Japan's Nikkei. Japan will probably be the story of the year in several ways next year. If their economy is indeed turned around they will no longer be motivated to sell Yen but will instead begin looking at raising interest rates. This in itself will shake up currency markets as Japanese intervention has kept the dollar artificially weak against floating currencies (the Euro in particular).
The biggest effect though will probably be in interest rate markets. Japanese O/N rates have been at zero for the better part of a decade and in my mind have been pulling global interest rates lower. The world has essentially struggled with the deflationary effects of negative growth in the second largest economy. That struggle may be over. This sort of shift in rates should cause some real pressure on peripheral borrowers and I would expect some spread widening in emerging market and high yield bonds. Many people looked at 1994 to see what might happen when the Fed began raising rates in early 2004 but this year's rate hikes were met with spread tightening. I don't think the same thing will be true when/if Japan begins moving rates up.
I would guess that all this and the development in emerging markets is setting up a pretty strong resurgence in macro trading.
The biggest effect though will probably be in interest rate markets. Japanese O/N rates have been at zero for the better part of a decade and in my mind have been pulling global interest rates lower. The world has essentially struggled with the deflationary effects of negative growth in the second largest economy. That struggle may be over. This sort of shift in rates should cause some real pressure on peripheral borrowers and I would expect some spread widening in emerging market and high yield bonds. Many people looked at 1994 to see what might happen when the Fed began raising rates in early 2004 but this year's rate hikes were met with spread tightening. I don't think the same thing will be true when/if Japan begins moving rates up.
I would guess that all this and the development in emerging markets is setting up a pretty strong resurgence in macro trading.
Dec 22, 2004
Hand Sitting
While I tend to agree with the consensus that we will rally into mid January based on seasonal factors, I find this view a bit difficult to trade. I am almost exclusivlely long here but far from fully invested and plan to make partial sales and roll up stops as we go. August was a good time to be long and now seems like a good time to figure out what comes next.
This morning the GBP took a solid thumping. Below 190.13 it will complete a double top against the USD. I have been playing around short the AUD against Yen (stopped a couple days back) and am now playing a bit short GBP against Yen. Neither chart really shows trend lower yet so I am just getting involved a bit and hoping to put on some more substantial trades later.
I am watching the second upgrade of the precious metals stocks in two days and wondering what is going on. Are they upgrading them for technical reasons? Was I simply noticing some sort of pre-upgrade accumulation? Who knows I guess. It is a bit annoying as I prefer being active in a vacuum to buying into upgrades. The charts still look nice though.
This morning the GBP took a solid thumping. Below 190.13 it will complete a double top against the USD. I have been playing around short the AUD against Yen (stopped a couple days back) and am now playing a bit short GBP against Yen. Neither chart really shows trend lower yet so I am just getting involved a bit and hoping to put on some more substantial trades later.
I am watching the second upgrade of the precious metals stocks in two days and wondering what is going on. Are they upgrading them for technical reasons? Was I simply noticing some sort of pre-upgrade accumulation? Who knows I guess. It is a bit annoying as I prefer being active in a vacuum to buying into upgrades. The charts still look nice though.
Tags:
Australian dollar,
British Pound
Dec 21, 2004
Beneath the Hood
Posted by Hello
Click on the charts to see a larger image!!
Some of the individual charts in the HUI look like they are finding some footing. This chart has stochastics crossing at the bottom but I would prefer to see one more touch of the 200 day while the stochastics keep their buy signal. Might start to dabble on the long side in some of the smaller names soon.
This chart in OS (Oregon Steel) bodes well for the market. Particularly with CMC joining in the breakout today. As the market overall felt weak Friday and today I think it is a good sign that the steel stocks can resume their rally. Makes me more comfortable buying into this pullback. I am also watching FCX in here to see if copper can manage the same trick.
After not doing a whole lot and seeing little to even talk about today I was mildly surprised by going through the charts. I noticed short-term head and shoulders in AMAT and KLAC. I also noticed several stocks (RFMD, NVTL, RHAT...) I had flagged to watch for upside breaks instead broke down. Depending on what happens in other markets, this pullback could lead to a buying opportunity between Xmas and New Year.
Some other odds and ends here. F appears to be breaking out to the upside here even though GM is going through some tough news with this Fiat put. GM appears to be basing too so I am wondering if this is a case of the tape leading the market. I have not heard positive comments on any auto stock (except maybe TM) in a long time.
Lastly, the 5-yr is easily holding its uptrend while its stochastics have almost worked back to oversold. May not head higher immediately but it is hard to see that pattern heading lower from here. Like the steel sector, that seems quite bullish. Maybe just more flattening though.
Click on the charts to see a larger image!!
Some of the individual charts in the HUI look like they are finding some footing. This chart has stochastics crossing at the bottom but I would prefer to see one more touch of the 200 day while the stochastics keep their buy signal. Might start to dabble on the long side in some of the smaller names soon.
This chart in OS (Oregon Steel) bodes well for the market. Particularly with CMC joining in the breakout today. As the market overall felt weak Friday and today I think it is a good sign that the steel stocks can resume their rally. Makes me more comfortable buying into this pullback. I am also watching FCX in here to see if copper can manage the same trick.
After not doing a whole lot and seeing little to even talk about today I was mildly surprised by going through the charts. I noticed short-term head and shoulders in AMAT and KLAC. I also noticed several stocks (RFMD, NVTL, RHAT...) I had flagged to watch for upside breaks instead broke down. Depending on what happens in other markets, this pullback could lead to a buying opportunity between Xmas and New Year.
Some other odds and ends here. F appears to be breaking out to the upside here even though GM is going through some tough news with this Fiat put. GM appears to be basing too so I am wondering if this is a case of the tape leading the market. I have not heard positive comments on any auto stock (except maybe TM) in a long time.
Lastly, the 5-yr is easily holding its uptrend while its stochastics have almost worked back to oversold. May not head higher immediately but it is hard to see that pattern heading lower from here. Like the steel sector, that seems quite bullish. Maybe just more flattening though.
Dec 18, 2004
Lost in the Social Security Shuffle
As the political wind of Social Security reform is beginning to blow everyone should rush out and find some non-political opinions on the current situation and its future sustainability. Paul McCulley's description is certainly worth a look. Here is a taste.
Social security is a welfare program, not a retirement program. Always has been and always will be. It is a social contract between generations, with the young funding on a pay-as-you-go basis an honorable duty to protect the old from a destitute journey into life's sunset. As a matter of financial architecture, Social Security is not anything like the ERISA-grounded retirement plans for which PIMCO manages huge portfolios.A more detailed description can be found in Prof. Robert Shiller's book. Altering the Social Security system will have a lasting impact on our country no matter what happens and I find it unnerving just how far the public dialogue seems from reality.
Dec 17, 2004
Bitter Irony
Charts posted by Hello
Watching HSY puke on the news that it will be hiking prices. I certainly had the right thought a couple of weeks ago about their costs being under pressure but I got stopped in a heartbeat. You'll notice in the link that PG had to raise the price of coffee so my SBUX thought (stopped there too) wasn't so far off either. That stock (SBUX) is in a flag pattern that may lead to an entry when it chooses a side. The "book" says it should resolve with the trend (up in this case) but maybe not.
On to today's business...
Click on the chart to see a larger image!
HITK looks like a pretty standard momentum bet. I would put the stop at 17.80 and hope to take some profits at $22.
AIG looks like a classic short as it is finally back to where it got "Spitzered". Might take a bit to rollover so maybe play with a half position stop at $66 and a full stop at $68 (or the 200 day). Long term the insurance industry is probably going to look different than it did before the investigations and with Greenberg's son being forced to step down from MMC and investigations underway into AIG I just don't see the company returning to business as usual. Either way there is supply overhead here so it makes for an interesting risk-reward tradeoff.
Watching HSY puke on the news that it will be hiking prices. I certainly had the right thought a couple of weeks ago about their costs being under pressure but I got stopped in a heartbeat. You'll notice in the link that PG had to raise the price of coffee so my SBUX thought (stopped there too) wasn't so far off either. That stock (SBUX) is in a flag pattern that may lead to an entry when it chooses a side. The "book" says it should resolve with the trend (up in this case) but maybe not.
On to today's business...
Click on the chart to see a larger image!
HITK looks like a pretty standard momentum bet. I would put the stop at 17.80 and hope to take some profits at $22.
AIG looks like a classic short as it is finally back to where it got "Spitzered". Might take a bit to rollover so maybe play with a half position stop at $66 and a full stop at $68 (or the 200 day). Long term the insurance industry is probably going to look different than it did before the investigations and with Greenberg's son being forced to step down from MMC and investigations underway into AIG I just don't see the company returning to business as usual. Either way there is supply overhead here so it makes for an interesting risk-reward tradeoff.
Dec 16, 2004
Breadth
One of the most interesting things yesterday was the excellent market breadth on a relatively flat day. Today we are experiencing the opposite with negative breadth on a flat day.
We have put in several strong positive days negative and flat breadth and I had been thinking the narrowing breadth may continue with the rally. This makes it really tough to trust the upside. Yesterday made me think maybe the breadth was going to catch up and give some real vigor to the upside but today is dashing that thought on the rocks pretty good.
We have put in several strong positive days negative and flat breadth and I had been thinking the narrowing breadth may continue with the rally. This makes it really tough to trust the upside. Yesterday made me think maybe the breadth was going to catch up and give some real vigor to the upside but today is dashing that thought on the rocks pretty good.
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