May 18, 2005

Equities, Bonds, and Inflation

I imagine we are making near term highs in the equity markets. Maybe slightly above here over the next 4 days and then a pullback. Maybe to 36.20 in the QQQQ. I am chucking out some of my longs with plans to kick the rest out tomorrow. Maybe we are into a topping process that leads to some good long term shorts but I would say it takes a couple of weeks and will be staying flat on equities and watching.

I am going to start building a long bond short in here. Going to go slow as it seems like the dollar might need to top out to create any real weakness.

I don't see this mornings inflation number as a problem and generally just see it lagging the PPI top. I don't see how that top can get taken out without a massive reversal in commodities. Those charts are disaster zones and probably need to base for 2 months. If I am wrong and that rally relaunches I would reconsider my view that inflation fears peaked in March and are headed lower.

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