The market should stay range bound between yesterday's highs and Monday's lows through the election. I would guess we head lower into next Monday morning and trade higher on Wednesday. I believe the election will be settled in the wee hours Wednesday morning. I would expect these thoughts to hold for the dollar too.
This HAL (Haliburton) news should provide today's entertainment. HAL announced earnings 3 days ago and the stock gapped to a 2-year high. It was a difficult move to understand given the association between that stock and the Bush Presidency. Election is up in the air but if Kerry wins that stock will be under a microscope and forced through a lot of hoops for future contracts. Someone once said that the the toughest shorts are the best shorts and if that is true then HAL could break 30 today.
On an aside, I was paper trading HAL looking for a top in oil stocks and my loss on paper kept me from putting out many real shorts in the sector. The moves in the sector and this stock just highlight how willing market participants are to whip stocks around from day to day. Conviction and knowledge are trading at a premium in this market, trumping technicals. For me that means tight stops and a willingness to reenter the trade if my timing is off.
No comments:
Post a Comment